Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 11.211039 12.845705 14.602137 16.625737 18.888639 21.336963 24.182022
2025-11-09 8.761057 10.972498 13.530686 16.692276 20.476862 24.843159 30.241948
2025-11-16 7.448690 9.884691 12.839784 16.657756 21.425793 27.147191 34.491325
2025-11-23 6.376879 8.925258 12.153733 16.495278 22.125473 29.119060 38.393522
2025-11-30 5.668312 8.308419 11.780339 16.611073 23.077642 31.344905 42.607466
2025-12-07 5.211971 7.963701 11.705279 17.070669 24.455698 34.136716 47.635160
2025-12-14 4.613341 7.345771 11.185482 16.856358 24.875229 35.643352 50.994163
2025-12-21 3.959685 6.573802 10.371019 16.146484 24.533940 36.066298 52.865712
2025-12-28 3.711822 6.380952 10.366219 16.576246 25.793426 38.711906 57.861382
2026-01-04 3.456750 6.148223 10.275663 16.859118 26.836522 41.077979 62.539805
2026-01-11 3.135809 5.776292 9.937841 16.735083 27.255750 42.550169 65.981795
2026-01-18 2.846059 5.425892 9.601847 16.581199 27.604892 43.913794 69.294711
2026-01-25 2.614116 5.156597 9.381947 16.604720 28.240226 45.748720 73.411556
2026-02-01 2.426184 4.946113 9.241310 16.742959 29.055924 47.882540 78.053110
2026-02-08 2.223488 4.687037 8.994864 16.682563 29.538554 49.509880 81.966766
2026-02-15 2.026334 4.417634 8.707505 16.529062 29.852330 50.875012 85.512706
2026-02-22 1.889808 4.249735 8.583795 16.641739 30.598794 52.933351 90.188676
2026-03-01 1.815071 4.195807 8.659829 17.103294 31.943553 55.984398 96.517474
2026-03-08 1.654809 3.952433 8.367437 16.888193 32.121955 57.154167 99.884747
2026-03-15 1.448583 3.590833 7.822826 16.177301 31.400873 56.815063 100.796192
2026-03-22 1.395822 3.552193 7.895896 16.607719 32.694167 59.844658 107.277106
2026-03-29 1.329889 3.477805 7.892295 16.891078 33.733817 62.479534 113.183251
2026-04-05 1.226182 3.307337 7.682921 16.766831 34.028438 63.857625 117.036808